2016 Federal COLA Increase Appearing Unlikely

"...As we edge closer to October, when federal retirees and Social Security recipients learn how much their COLA will actually be in 2016, the answer to whether there will be a COLA increase in 2016 becomes a little more clear each month.

It now appears increasingly less likely that there will be a COLA increase for federal retirees in January 2016. 

The reason is because the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is about the same in July as it was in June. The CPI-W is the index used for measuring increases in the prices that are used to determine how much the COLA increase will be, if any, in January 2016. As determined by the relevant data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-W) in October 2014, federal retirees received a 1.7 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to their civil service annuities beginning in January 2015. Social Security benefits and military retirement annuities increased by the same amount.

The CPI-W has actually declined 0.3 percent over the last 12 months. To calculate the 2016 COLA, if any, the average of the indices of July, August, and September 2015 will be compared with the 2014 third quarter average. The percentage increase, if any, determines the COLA some federal retirees will receive next January..."

Read more at FedSmith.com